3 market phases

Raw osmium is extracted in several regions of the world as a by-metal of platinum, separated from other metals in refineries and pre-purified. Very small quantities are used in the consumer markets of medicine and research. This raw osmium is consumed and is lost forever for crystallization. The quantities of available raw osmium are therefore falling rapidly! And according to current estimates, there are no more than about 20 tons of mineable raw osmium available in the earth's crust. The amount produced each year is far less than one ton and is falling steadily.

The moment when the availability of raw osmium falls below the quantities of crystalline osmium that can be produced will be exciting. This will result in a shortage, which could lead to the unavailability of osmium as the first metal. If this happens, it will probably have a strong positive impact on the price of osmium. The Americans call this effect the Osmium Big Bang to explain an expected sharp price explosion. The big bang at the end of market phase one is one of the target points that real investors from private individuals to family offices are waiting for.

Another fact is the knowledge of the mining areas. It cannot be assumed that any more mines will be found. Crystalline osmium as a tangible asset investment has therefore become much more popular in 2014 with the discovery of the closely guarded and secret crystallization process.

After being highly purified, osmium is crystallized several times until it reaches its perfect flat shape with perfect sparkle and perfect layer thickness. The quality is essential for the jewelry and luxury market. No jewelry could be created with wildly grown forms. And toxic sintered cubes or melted pearls cannot be used either.  

Only the process of flat crystallization represents the value of the osmium and produces the surfaces which, when scanned in the Osmium World Database, identify each individual piece for the tangible investment market as genuine and absolutely unfalsifiable. The value of the raw osmium is therefore multiplied enormously through crystallization and entry in the world database.

After crystallization and certification, the semi-finished product is brought to market as bars or discs by the international Osmium Institutes and is thus available to tangible investors, family offices, banks and private individuals. There are no derivatives on crystalline osmium; it is brought to the market safely and in physical form. The theoretical market capitalization of all crystalline osmium is around 30 to 40 billion euros at today's production prices.

Investors in kind should sell to jewelers, goldsmiths, artists, manufacturers and other processing companies in the future. However, tangible investors who see further potential in the price trend are also potential customers.

The sale of semi-finished discs and bars by tangible asset investors to the manufacturing industry, where it replaces the declining price of diamonds, heralds the end of the second market phase with the osmium thin-out event.

The sale of flat-crystalline osmium for the manufacture of jewelry such as earrings, necklaces and wristwatches is growing steadily and will probably account for more than 30 percent of the crystalline osmium sold by then in a few years' time. As the osmium secondary market expands globally through both fast-growing dealer networks and an online secondary marketplace, this will further increase the attractiveness of the asset to tangible investors.

As a result, the amount of available crystalline osmium from market phase two continues to thin out, while the commodity moves to producers in market phase three. This event is commonly referred to as the Osmium Thinout.

Osmium is increasingly being used in the manufacture of luxury jewelry, accessories, art, technical embellishments and timepieces in particular. As soon as this third market phase begins in the future, raw osmium will have almost run out and stocks of crystalline osmium will already be dwindling worldwide. With the end of crystallization, due to a lack of supply of raw osmium, the crystallization of osmium would inevitably stop. Secondary exchanges, such as www.Osmium-Marketplace.com, will therefore be the only way to obtain crystalline osmium for production. In-kind investors willing to sell will then become suppliers to the industry.

Eventually, almost all tangible investment osmium will end up in the jewelry market. The timing depends on price trends, willingness to sell and growth in the willingness to buy in the manufacturing industry. The trading volume on the jewelry market has been increasing at an ever faster rate since 2022. This is due to the fact that the number of designs could only be built up slowly in the first few years and is only now developing by leaps and bounds thanks to a massive trade fair presence. As the amount of osmium entering the jewelry market increases, the amount of crystalline osmium available to the tangible asset investor market decreases.

This fluid process at the transition to market phase three is referred to as " Osmium-Thinout" because crystalline osmium disappears from the circular market of tangible asset investors. According to the known rules of the market, prices will rise if it is sold into the jewelry market, but only a small amount of the commodity can return to the tangible asset investment market. This effect clearly distinguishes osmium from gold, which never runs out as it can always be recycled.

The exciting thing is that once osmium has arrived on the jewelry market, it is only returned to the tangible asset market in a few cases. If recycled, the osmium would have to be granulated, incinerated, sublimated, purified again and crystallized several times. In the process, the crystal structure is lost as a fingerprint and guarantor of falsifiability. No material investor or jewelry owner therefore has an economic incentive to recycle crystalline osmium from jewelry. Thus, the Osmium Thinout remains the most likely scenario and crystalline osmium will run out in the foreseeable future. After the Osmium Big Bang, an extremely positive price implication is once again expected. Which should please anyone who has simply kept their osmium until then. In any case, children or heirs will be able to enjoy the effect. It can even be assumed that crystalline osmium will be purchased in carats and traded on an exchange by that day.

Conclusion: Of course, no promises can be made, but empirical observations can: Every single precious metal that has come onto the market, and this applies to all seven except osmium, has already experienced a sharp rise in price as soon as the tangible investment market was fueled by international attention. The question is therefore not so much "if", but rather "when" Osmium BigBang and Osmium ThinOut will occur. This creates a lucrative opportunity for long-term tangible asset investors today.